After two years of double-digit growth following the recession, the pace of exports and imports slowed last year, rising 4.3% and 2.7%, respectively, compared with 2011. Growth remained sluggish through the first two months of 2013, weighed down by ongoing weakness in Europe and concern over the political stalemate in the U.S. (which has eased somewhat recently). In February, exports and imports increased in the low single-digits on a year-over-year basis with exports up 3.2% and imports up 1.9%. Imports of automobiles, consumer goods and capital goods were strong in February, offset by decreased inbound shipments of oil. In the long run, imports of energy-related goods should grow more slowly as the U.S. develops its shale oil fields, helping to reduce the trade deficit. Exports were led higher in February by industrial supplies.

Despite only modest recent growth in trade, construction of warehouses is beginning to pick up. In California’s Inland Empire, for example, nearly 6 million square feet of space is under construction with about 20 million square feet in various stages of planning and permitting. This market thrives on imports through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, so this activity can be taken as a sign of faith on the part of developers and lenders that the economic rebound in the U.S., particularly consumer spending, will be sustained.